今、明天放假，見一個星加坡回來的老友。
昨天本來要安排假期同事的工作，但開會由五時到晚上十時半，什麼也做不了，早上開了Web Mail，在家處理了點公務。如果如此，我不用上班，Home Office可以了。
什麼時候才可以當SOHO一族？
2007年10月26日 星期五
Interesting Stuff
It seems funny, enjoy it.
Actual rebuttal from a rich fella to a materialistic woman:
25 Year Old Beauty Seeks Rich Banker
05/10/2007 following exchange took place on Craigslist - don't misss investment banker's response
'What am I doing wrong?'
Okay, I'm tired of beating around the bush. I'm a beautiful (spectacularly beautiful) 25 year old girl. I'm articulate and classy. I'm not from . I'm looking to get married to a guy who makes at least half a million a year. I know how that sounds, but keep in mind that a million a year is middle class in New York City, so I don't think I'm overreaching at all.
Are there any guys who make 500K or more on this board ? Any wives ? Could you send me some tips ? I dated a business man who made an average of around 200 - 250K. But that's where I seem to hit a roadblock. $250,000 won't get me to Central Park West. I know a woman in my yoga class who was married to an investment banker, and lives in Tribeca. She's not as pretty as I am, nor is she a great genius. So what is she doing right ? How do I get to her level ?
Here are my questions specifically:
- Where do you single rich men hang out ? Give me specifics - bars, restaurants, gyms
- What are you looking for in a mate? Be honest guys, you won't hurt my feelings
- Is there an age range I should be targeting ?
- Why are some of the women living lavish lifestyles on the so plain? I've seen really 'Plain Jane' boring types, who have nothing to offer incredibly wealthy guys. Then I've seen drop dead gorgeous girls in singles bars in the . What's the story there ?
- Lawyers, investment bankers, doctors. How much do those guys really make ? And where do the hedge fund guys hang out ?
- How do you rich guys decide on marriage vs. just a girlfriend ? I am looking for MARRIAGE ONLY.
Please hold your insults - I'm putting myself out there in an honest way. Most beautiful women are superficial - at least I'm being up front about it. I wouldn't be searching for these kind of guys if I wasn't able to match them - in looks, culture, sophistication, and keeping a nice hearth and home'.
An Investment Banker's Response:
Dear Pers-431649184:
'I read your posting with great interest and have thought meaningfully about your dilemma. I offer the following analysis of your predicament.
Firstly, I'm not wasting your time. I qualify as a guy who fits your bill - that is, I make more than $500K per year. That said, here's how I see it:
Your offer, from the prospective of a guy like me, is a plain and simple crappy business deal. Here's why. Cutting through all the B.S., what you suggest is a simple trade: you bring your looks to the party and I bring my money. Fine, simple. But here's the rub, your looks will fade and my money will likely continue into perpetuity - in fact, it is very likely that my income will increase, but it is an absolute certainty that you won't be getting any more beautiful!
So, in economic terms, you are a depreciating asset. Not only are you a depreciating asset, however, your depreciation accelerates! Let me explain - you're 25 now and will likely remain pretty hot for the next 5 years, but less so each year. Then the fade begins in earnest. By 35 - stick a fork in you!
So, in Wall Street terms, we'd call you a trading position - not a buy and hold?hence the rub?marriage. It doesn't make good business sense to 'buy you' (which is what you're asking) - so I'd rather lease. In case you think I'm being cruel, I would say the following: if my money were to go away, so would you - so when your beauty fades I need an out too. It's as simple as that. So the deal that makes sense for me is dating, not marriage.
Separately, I was taught early in my career about efficient markets. So, I wonder why a girl as 'articulate, classy and spectacularly beautiful' as you has been unable to find your sugar daddy. I find it hard to believe that, if you are as gorgeous as you say you are, your $500K man hasn't found you - if only for a tryout.
By the way, you could always find a way to make your own money - and then we wouldn't need to have this difficult conversation.
With all that said, I must say you're going about it the right way. Classic 'pump and dump'. I hope this is helpful, and if you want to enter into some sort of lease, please let me know'.
Actual rebuttal from a rich fella to a materialistic woman:
25 Year Old Beauty Seeks Rich Banker
05/10/2007 following exchange took place on Craigslist - don't misss investment banker's response
'What am I doing wrong?'
Okay, I'm tired of beating around the bush. I'm a beautiful (spectacularly beautiful) 25 year old girl. I'm articulate and classy. I'm not from . I'm looking to get married to a guy who makes at least half a million a year. I know how that sounds, but keep in mind that a million a year is middle class in New York City, so I don't think I'm overreaching at all.
Are there any guys who make 500K or more on this board ? Any wives ? Could you send me some tips ? I dated a business man who made an average of around 200 - 250K. But that's where I seem to hit a roadblock. $250,000 won't get me to Central Park West. I know a woman in my yoga class who was married to an investment banker, and lives in Tribeca. She's not as pretty as I am, nor is she a great genius. So what is she doing right ? How do I get to her level ?
Here are my questions specifically:
- Where do you single rich men hang out ? Give me specifics - bars, restaurants, gyms
- What are you looking for in a mate? Be honest guys, you won't hurt my feelings
- Is there an age range I should be targeting ?
- Why are some of the women living lavish lifestyles on the so plain? I've seen really 'Plain Jane' boring types, who have nothing to offer incredibly wealthy guys. Then I've seen drop dead gorgeous girls in singles bars in the . What's the story there ?
- Lawyers, investment bankers, doctors. How much do those guys really make ? And where do the hedge fund guys hang out ?
- How do you rich guys decide on marriage vs. just a girlfriend ? I am looking for MARRIAGE ONLY.
Please hold your insults - I'm putting myself out there in an honest way. Most beautiful women are superficial - at least I'm being up front about it. I wouldn't be searching for these kind of guys if I wasn't able to match them - in looks, culture, sophistication, and keeping a nice hearth and home'.
An Investment Banker's Response:
Dear Pers-431649184:
'I read your posting with great interest and have thought meaningfully about your dilemma. I offer the following analysis of your predicament.
Firstly, I'm not wasting your time. I qualify as a guy who fits your bill - that is, I make more than $500K per year. That said, here's how I see it:
Your offer, from the prospective of a guy like me, is a plain and simple crappy business deal. Here's why. Cutting through all the B.S., what you suggest is a simple trade: you bring your looks to the party and I bring my money. Fine, simple. But here's the rub, your looks will fade and my money will likely continue into perpetuity - in fact, it is very likely that my income will increase, but it is an absolute certainty that you won't be getting any more beautiful!
So, in economic terms, you are a depreciating asset. Not only are you a depreciating asset, however, your depreciation accelerates! Let me explain - you're 25 now and will likely remain pretty hot for the next 5 years, but less so each year. Then the fade begins in earnest. By 35 - stick a fork in you!
So, in Wall Street terms, we'd call you a trading position - not a buy and hold?hence the rub?marriage. It doesn't make good business sense to 'buy you' (which is what you're asking) - so I'd rather lease. In case you think I'm being cruel, I would say the following: if my money were to go away, so would you - so when your beauty fades I need an out too. It's as simple as that. So the deal that makes sense for me is dating, not marriage.
Separately, I was taught early in my career about efficient markets. So, I wonder why a girl as 'articulate, classy and spectacularly beautiful' as you has been unable to find your sugar daddy. I find it hard to believe that, if you are as gorgeous as you say you are, your $500K man hasn't found you - if only for a tryout.
By the way, you could always find a way to make your own money - and then we wouldn't need to have this difficult conversation.
With all that said, I must say you're going about it the right way. Classic 'pump and dump'. I hope this is helpful, and if you want to enter into some sort of lease, please let me know'.
2007年10月24日 星期三
葉太的政綱
今天看了葉太的政綱，重點不在其內容，我覺得北京的手法很簡單，你們要普選行政長官，我會俾你，要立法會全面直選，我俾你，你選我欽點的人便可以了，選了她，什麼都有，前提是她聽我話，其他人不聽。
事到如今很清楚，權在我手，你就範，有糖食；不就範，一拍兩散，反正是你沒有普選，不關我的事。話說回來，普選制度不是恩賜，是本來應有的東西，現在變成統治者手上的糖果，像魚餌一樣，今天吃了餌，選了這樣的人，明天要再23條立法，可能沒有人會再出來反對，今天的甜頭換來明天的惡果，是誰上鈎？就是今天有權投票作選擇的人。
世上本來就沒有民主派，只有在朝、在野，親建制和反建制，一邊獨大永遠不是好事。一張選票，代表了一種價值觀，香港的政治發展，就看投票者名是否吃餌。
事到如今很清楚，權在我手，你就範，有糖食；不就範，一拍兩散，反正是你沒有普選，不關我的事。話說回來，普選制度不是恩賜，是本來應有的東西，現在變成統治者手上的糖果，像魚餌一樣，今天吃了餌，選了這樣的人，明天要再23條立法，可能沒有人會再出來反對，今天的甜頭換來明天的惡果，是誰上鈎？就是今天有權投票作選擇的人。
世上本來就沒有民主派，只有在朝、在野，親建制和反建制，一邊獨大永遠不是好事。一張選票，代表了一種價值觀，香港的政治發展，就看投票者名是否吃餌。
2007年10月23日 星期二
2007年10月22日 星期一
亂局
紛亂的世界，看不通的時局。
上星期Dowjones大跌，日圓上升，歐元也上升，澳、紐也偏軟，看來又是拆利差交易。次按危機未解決，Credit Crunch仍在困擾金融市場，SIV之局要靠銀行放水解決，消息傳來可能會籌得六百億美元，但能否真正解困仍是未知之素。一般而言在此情形下股票市場不會很好，然而看香港股票、地產可以欣欣向榮，在國內庇蔭下，是否香港能獨善其身，擺脫世界的影響，只由奧運前A股不跌、北水南流即可令香港市場一支獨秀？到底是中國資金大還是世界的市場力量大？短期內鬥傻是可以的，在奧運前我們是在鬥傻嗎？
現在港股無人敢看淡，當一個市沒有人相信會跌的時候，是要準備計數的時候，玩不起真的不要玩。
上星期Dowjones大跌，日圓上升，歐元也上升，澳、紐也偏軟，看來又是拆利差交易。次按危機未解決，Credit Crunch仍在困擾金融市場，SIV之局要靠銀行放水解決，消息傳來可能會籌得六百億美元，但能否真正解困仍是未知之素。一般而言在此情形下股票市場不會很好，然而看香港股票、地產可以欣欣向榮，在國內庇蔭下，是否香港能獨善其身，擺脫世界的影響，只由奧運前A股不跌、北水南流即可令香港市場一支獨秀？到底是中國資金大還是世界的市場力量大？短期內鬥傻是可以的，在奧運前我們是在鬥傻嗎？
現在港股無人敢看淡，當一個市沒有人相信會跌的時候，是要準備計數的時候，玩不起真的不要玩。
2007年10月18日 星期四
人、情、大時代 (1)
昨晚終於看了近期熱門之作《色|戒》。
精緻的電影，如果細心看電影的服裝、道具、背景是賞心樂事，淡淡的懷舊色彩，重現四十年代的香港和上海，劇情有令人思考的地方，是寫情，也寫人性，也可看成是一班年青人因幼稚玩火而走向死亡的悲劇。請留意，劇中兩中年對頭人：老吳和易先生都沒事(除了老曹，成了第一次行動代替易先生成為大學生要摧毀的對象)，死的是劇社的大學生，起因是熱血，幼稚的以為做點大事，由演戲變成玩真，最後賠上生命。
戲中我比較留意女主角的心理變化，請留意當王佳芝做麥太太和做自己時，有很大不同，做麥太時錦衣華服，做自己時只是普通一個女學生，當王佳芝在上海答應再做麥太太時，內心深處可能有寧當麥太，不做王佳芝的潛意識。不知是不是已埋下在漂亮的寶石面前，通知易先生走的伏筆。在片中，很能理解為什麼王佳芝會走這樣的歷程，會愛上易先生；但為什麼易先生會愛上麥太，不是太有說服力。美貌不會是原因，易先生要怎樣的美女都可以，要他動真情，要他信任，應還有其他東西。小說中描寫是王佳芝的身材，電影中說是王佳芝能令他輕鬆，性是否一重要元素？我看是。毛澤東也是這樣，殘酷的戰爭和權力鬥爭環境中，只有女人才能令他放鬆。醒握天下權，醉臥美人膝是男人的最高境界。易先生應也如是。
跟易先生比，鄺裕民只是一黃毛小子，只有易太太對他有興趣。三年前的王佳芝對他傾心，三年後經過易先生後，已不能再回頭，中間的過程可堪玩味。李安寫女人心理有一手，王佳芝是缺乏父愛的，的確較容易愛上中年男子，特別是有權有勢有錢的梁朝偉型的中年男子。
要談色|戒，很多東西想寫，但要去開會了，只得暫時擱筆，容後再寫我的觀後感。
2007年10月17日 星期三
風險識別
網上找到有關什麼是風險的文章，個人覺得有很大的參考價值。
要做風險管理，必須知道什麼是風險，風險管理的第一步，便是風險識別，不知什麼是風險，不要談風險管理。
風險的定義是：目標實現的不確定性。
據此定義，要做風險識別，必先有明確目標，然後才有不確定性。即：
Risk = Objective + Uncertainty
這公式也說明風險不等於不確定，與目標無關的不確定性，不在風險管理考慮之列。
跟著，作為風險經理，還要分辨：
原因是指項目中存在的一些確定的事或情況，它們會產生不確定性。
風險是指能對目標產生負面或正面影響的不確定性。即所謂有危也有機。
後果是指對目標的非預期變動，由風險發生而引起的，也有正、負面。
風險理只是管理第二項，管不到原因和後果。如果在風險識別過程混淆了原因和後果，會影響風險管理的有效性。
以上是風險管理的第一課，完全和pricing和model無關。
要做風險管理，必須知道什麼是風險，風險管理的第一步，便是風險識別，不知什麼是風險，不要談風險管理。
風險的定義是：目標實現的不確定性。
據此定義，要做風險識別，必先有明確目標，然後才有不確定性。即：
Risk = Objective + Uncertainty
這公式也說明風險不等於不確定，與目標無關的不確定性，不在風險管理考慮之列。
跟著，作為風險經理，還要分辨：
- 風險原因
- 真正風險
- 風險後果
原因是指項目中存在的一些確定的事或情況，它們會產生不確定性。
風險是指能對目標產生負面或正面影響的不確定性。即所謂有危也有機。
後果是指對目標的非預期變動，由風險發生而引起的，也有正、負面。
風險理只是管理第二項，管不到原因和後果。如果在風險識別過程混淆了原因和後果，會影響風險管理的有效性。
以上是風險管理的第一課，完全和pricing和model無關。
2007年10月15日 星期一
2007年10月11日 星期四
2007年10月9日 星期二
文章分享
近日上網看到一篇批評 VaR 的文章，可以在這裡和大家分享。
這文章的作者是Nassim Taleb，題為Against Value at Risk: Nassim Taleb Replies to Philippe Jorion。
文章開始有風險管理的九大戒律，說明作者是有買賣經驗的。
以上金科玉律有多少人能真正明白？此文日後再詳再介紹。
這文章的作者是Nassim Taleb，題為Against Value at Risk: Nassim Taleb Replies to Philippe Jorion。
文章開始有風險管理的九大戒律，說明作者是有買賣經驗的。
- 不熟不做
- 小事往往做成大損失
- 信人不如信已
- 小心常勝將軍
- 越多人多在同一市場對沖風險，越容易產生風險
- 留意各金融工具價格變化
- 過去沒事不等於將來也會沒事
- 不要相信平均數
- 只有損失才會學到教訓
以上金科玉律有多少人能真正明白？此文日後再詳再介紹。
2007年10月8日 星期一
2007年10月5日 星期五
2007年10月4日 星期四
2007年10月3日 星期三
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